Conviction Port

You type 1–10 how bullish you are at this price, for each time range. Math sets portfolio % and leverage. We pick how to buy it. We never place the trade.

1–4 = no long · 5 = no edge, sit out · 10 = highest conviction. A 10 is much larger than a 6 — undersizing the 10s is the bug this exists to stop.

After a decent price move or major news, the old number is stale. Type a new one. We will not change it for you.

Target book

How this works

The only human input is a conviction number per stock per time range. Everything else is math.

Score 1–10 at the current price for 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, or any other window you add. 5 or below means no long position.

Those numbers become percent of the portfolio and a leverage multiple. Risk tolerance scales both. A 10 is not a little bigger than a 6 — it is much bigger, on purpose.

If a name wants more than the cap, we cut it and leave the extra as cash. We do not dump leftovers onto weaker names.

When price has moved a lot (~8%+) or there is major news, the score is marked stale. Enter a new 1–10 at that price. The old number is never rewritten automatically.

Then we pick shares vs a call vs a defined-risk spread to hit the leverage without paying a stupid bid–ask. Rebalance vs what you already hold: skip trims that are smaller than the round-trip spread. No live orders.